Tech Goes Boom

Who Cares About Processors Anyway

Apple released the new G5 Powermacs today, apparently saving the WWDC limelight for Mac OS X 10.4 and whatever other incremental updates they will have for the iMac and their displays. Although it could be that they will focus entirely on software, they have done this before.

I can understand not wanting to introduce the new G5s at WWDC. They are really only speedbumps with no major architectural changes besides liquid cooling on the dual 2.5Ghz machines. No second optical drive, no additional HD bays. It looks like only the dual 2.5s will have the smaller revised motherboard based on photos from Apple's website. Over all, not much reason to upgrade if you're already running a dual 2.0 or 1.8.

Steve's promise of 3Ghz machines is now vapor, as Tom Boger admitted in an interview reported by MacCentral.

We just didn't realize the challenges moving to 90 nanometer would present. It turned out to be a much bigger challenge than anyone expected. All-in-all, no we are not getting to 3GHz anytime soon.

While I admire Toms frankness about the matter, it also seems to reveal a general sense of frustration with processor power across the computing industry. Intel has run into a wall with their chips, and are focusing on dual core processors that won't yield any meaningful results for a couple of years, and it seems to have let all processor manufacturers shift down from overdrive and idle for a while. As if intel admitting that they're having a hard time has allowed other fabs to come out of the closet with their own limitations. Are the processor wars over? Well they certainly seem to be for the moment.

Tom's interview also indicates another attitude that is rearing it's head in the industry, which has it's home at Game Developer Id. "it'll be done when it's done" is their famous quote. There was a time when few technology companies could utter those words and keep a user base. It now seems to be becoming a mantra in the industry. Microsoft will release Longhorn whenever it feels like it. Apple will be slowing down it's operating system releases because they were going to fast. We're all tired here from 2 decades of cut-throat competition, let us catch our breath. Moore's law will wait for us.

Don't get me wrong, G5s are fast computers. So are the top chips from AMD and Intel. They are also relatively cheap. In the same vein, Mac OS X is a great operating system, and XP is about the best MS has offered up. But things are definitely slowing down.

Could this be the opportunity for AMD to dominate the Processor market? If the Linux community can ramp things up, could they make Linux as user friendly and capable as OS X and XP? While this slump settles in over the major players, an opportunity arises for hungry companies to bring new products to market. Hopefully the next 2 years in technology will be marked by innovation from the little guy, rather than stultification on the industry as a whole.